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Exit whether smooth growth influence is tremendous

From;  Author:Stand originally
According to statistic of customs total office, before this year export of our country foreign trade increased 22.4% in August; Contrast amplitude of exit of the corresponding period was last year 27.7% , annual was last year 25.7% . Whether do this mean the risk that exit glides considerably to still exist? Is second half of the year exported whether maintain smooth growth? Department of Commerce politics grind room controller prince thinks first, judgement exports a trend currently, a main base point namely environment of international classics trade, and the grimmest challenge that exit of second half of the year faces is exterior uncertainty, instability increases, the situation nots allow hopeful. Above all, risk of be issued to lower levels of main economy system is increased further. Although near future bush-administration helps city again and again, american GDP ever had pick up evidence, but exterior data unpleasant attack by surprise its are exhausted voice, the individual spending growth of the GDP2/3 that occupy the United States is lack of power, import demand is greatly abate. Before this year in August, amplitude of Sino-US trading business volume falls compared to the same period 3.1 percent. Hasten of foreground of growth of euro region economy is weak, japanese economy once more sink backwater, burgeoning economy system increases fast perch fall after a rise, to our country exit is caused bigger outside pressure. Our country basically exports goods with measuring calculative first half of the year already was 0 growth or negative growth. Next, global inflation aggravate, price of energy natural resources lasts tall look forward to. Inflation warmed up to raise the manufacturing cost of the enterprise directly, at present the price of industry raw material such as Electromechanical, light industrial, chemical industry rises many even more 20% , international sea freight also went up 30% above. Developed country and head of rising market cost are shrunken, grow this to go down of our country product compare an advantage to will be offsetted gradually, exit competition ability drops. Moreover situation of politics of economy of global ground predestined relationship heals hasten is complex, new trade protectionism looks up, will make China exports a product to be touched morely " wall " . "Dumpling incident " affect our country is defeated by day of produce badly, and Euramerican to our country " two tall one endowment " export adjusting control also pays close attention to increasingly, apply through a variety of channel ceaselessly pressure.

Look from home, "3 rate two price " (price of drawback rate, exchange rate, interest rate, raw material, labour force price) the overlay effect of fluctuant generation, environment of together with monetary policy, manage to exit bring weigh. General report becomes the enterprise to rise originally this year 20% above, partial region industry closes down, move of transnational corporation order. Export business exports profit margin on average to fall to 2% , far under last year level. The expert thinks, contradiction of many sided of inside and outside still is accumulated in crisscross, exit of our country of second half of the year is added fast won't slide quickly, also rebound considerably hard however. Although adverse factor increase, uncertainty is increased, but the inflection point that the expert points out to foreign trade develops was not shown, existing exit amplitude does not calculate low, foreign trade still moves in normal interval, annual exports smooth growth to still have room for manoeuvre: It is international market demand. Slowdown of economy of eye preexistence bound, need to drop outside, but abroad is right " China is made " depend on sb or sth for existence is spent tall, a variety of 50 China mechanical and electrical products take global market 80% above, light industrial the product is occupied 60% , 70% , spin dress occupies 40% above, demand flexibility is relatively lesser, international purchases business short-term inside without replace an option. Go as a result of cycle of each economy system situation is differ, together with developing country makes new growth extremely, "Market diversity " be helpful for reducing our country exit to add fast wave motion, increase fight control capacity, and the concussion of American economy fall after a rise can be less than the past. Actually our country is added to the exit of rising market this year fast already appeared litre fall each other sees pattern, export to the country such as Korea, India firm in have litre, before imprint in August trading business volume grows 59.1% , first what add 10 large trade associate of fast house our country; Our country is mixed to Brazil, Russia east the exit of alliance also is maintaining faster growth, on certain level but the loss that market of amortize beautiful Europe glides.
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